U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – Sep ’15
All Milk – Disappearance Declines YOY on Milk-Fat Basis, Remains Higher YOY on Skim-Solids Basis According to USDA, Jul ’15 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased YOY on a skim-solids basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing 0.9% above the previous year. Commercial disappearance on a milk-fat basis declined YOY for the second time in four months, however, finishing down 0.8%. Domestic demand continued to outpace international demand, finishing up 1.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 3.2% YOY on a skim-solids basis. ’14-’15 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products is up 0.4% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.4% YOY on a skim-solids basis through the first ten months of the production season, with domestic demand up 2.9% on a milk-fat basis and 3.0% on a skim-solids basis over the same period. Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY on Continued Weak Export Demand Jul ’15 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 12.3% YOY and 12.8% MOM on a daily average basis. Butter disappearance has declined YOY in five of the past seven months as international demand remains particularly weak. Throughout Jul ’15 domestic butter demand declined 9.7% YOY while international demand finished 56.7% lower than the previous year. U.S. butterfat exports have declined YOY for 15 consecutive months as U.S. butter prices have traded at a premium to international prices and the U.S. Dollar has appreciated vs. rival currencies. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. butter commercial disappearance is down 8.7% YOY through the first ten months of the production season, with domestic demand down 1.3% and international demand down 76.4% over the period. Cheese – Disappearance Finishes Higher on YOY Basis for Fifth Time in Six Months Jul ’15 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 1.6% YOY and 0.5% MOM on a daily average basis. The YOY increase in cheese disappearance was the fifth experienced in the past six months. American cheese disappearance was particularly strong, increasing by 2.7% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 1.0% YOY. Domestic cheese demand increased 3.4% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 20.8% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for ten consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for nine consecutive months.’14-’15 YTD U.S. cheese commercial disappearance is up 1.6% YOY through the first ten months of the production season. NFDM/SMP –Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Domestic Demand, Finishing up 4.3% Jul ’15 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance declined 11.0% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing 4.3%. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic commercial disappearance remained particularly strong, increasing 53.3% YOY. The YOY gains in domestic commercial disappearance outweighed the 21.9% YOY decline in U.S. NFDM/SMP exports. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance is up 5.4% YOY through the first ten months of the production season despite export volumes declining 8.1% YOY over the same period. Fluid Milk Sales – Sales Increase YOY for First Time in 18 Months, Remain at Third Lowest on Record Jun ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales of 3.83 billion pounds increased on a YOY basis for the first time in 18 months, finishing 1.4% above the previous year. Monthly fluid milk sales had declined by an average rate of 2.8% over the previous 17 months. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 7.1% while fat-reduced milk sales declined 1.3% YOY. Despite the overall YOY increase, Jun ’15 monthly fluid milk sales were the third lowest figure on record, trailing only the fluid milk sales experienced in Jun ’14 and Jul ’14. ’13-’14 annual fluid milk sales declined 2.4% YOY, which was the largest annual YOY decline on record while ’14-’15 YTD fluid milk sales are on pace to match the historic decline, down 2.4% YOY through the first three quarters of the production season. See the table below for a summary of key Jul ’15 U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures in addition to the Jun ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales figure.