U.S. Milk Production Update – Aug ’15
According to USDA, Jul ’15 U.S. milk production was up 1.2% YOY, at 17,650 million pounds, setting a new July production record. Production continued to decline MOM, however, contracting 2.3% on a daily average basis as production continues to seasonally decline until lows are typically reached in October. Production has declined seasonally from June – July by an average rate of 3.2% over the past ten years. U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the second half of 2014, as shown below, however production growth decelerated over the final quarter of the year and into 2015. The Jul ’15 YOY growth rate of 1.2% increased slightly from the 18 month low growth rate of 0.9% experienced in Jun ’15 but remained below the ’14-’15 YTD growth rate of 2.1%. YOY production gains on a percentage basis continue to be led by South Dakota (+12.3%), followed by Michigan (+6.3%) and Wisconsin (+5.3%). California milk production declined YOY for the eighth consecutive month, finishing 3.3% lower, while production in New Mexico, Oregon and Texas also finished lower than the prior year. California, New Mexico and Oregon experienced lower YOY milk per cow yields while California, Oregon and Texas experienced reductions in their milk cow herds. Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd increased slightly MOM in Jul ’15, with the number of milk cows on farms finishing 1,000 head above the Jun ’15 revised figure. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9,322,000 head, which is 54,000 head more than July of last year. Milk per cow yield was up 0.6% YOY, increasing to 1,893 lbs, the largest on record for the month of July. Milk cow herds increased MOM in Michigan (+1,000 head) and New York (+1,000 head) while no MOM declines in milk cow herds were exhibited. YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Michigan (+15,000 head), followed by Wisconsin (+9,000 head), South Dakota (+9,000 head) and Idaho (+7,000 head). Texas (-8,000 head), Virginia (-2,000 head), California (-1,000 head) and Oregon (-1,000 head) experienced YOY reductions in their milk cow herds.