U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Jul ’15
Pork – Exports Reach Three Year High, Net Trade Increases YOY for First Time in Ten Months May ’15 U.S. pork export volumes increased 1.5% YOY but declined 12.4% MOM on a daily average basis from the three year high experienced in Apr ’15. Of the major U.S. pork export destinations, YOY volume increases on a percentage basis continue to be led by South Korea, with May ’15 shipments up 40.0% YOY. U.S. pork exports to South Korea have increased YOY for 16 consecutive months. Exports destined to Canada declined for the second consecutive month on a YOY basis, finishing 4.0% below the previous year while export volumes to Japan fell by 0.5% YOY. Exports destined to Mexico declined YOY for the first time in four months, finishing down 1.1%. U.S. pork exports to Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Canada accounted for just under three quarters of all pork export volumes in May ’15. May ’15 U.S. pork imports declined 2.3% YOY and 9.4% MOM on a daily average basis. The YOY decline in pork imports was the first experienced in the past 15 months. Increasing YOY pork exports, coupled declining YOY pork imports, resulted in May ’15 net pork trade increasing YOY for the second consecutive month. May ’15 U.S. net pork trade finished up 2.5% YOY while but declined 13.1% MOM on a daily average basis from the two and a half year high experienced in Apr ’15. U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes have remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the first two thirds of the ’14-’15 production season. Beef & Veal – Net Trade Rebounds Slightly, Remains Down Significantly YOY May ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained weak, declining 14.4% YOY and 6.7% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 11 consecutive months through May. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by Mexico (-33.0%), followed by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-20.4%), Canada (-15.6%) and Japan (-12.9%). Export volumes to South Korea increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing 0.2% higher than the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in May ’15. May ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports continued to increase YOY, finishing 24.8% above the previous year, but declined 14.5% MOM on a daily average basis from the nine and a half year high experienced in Apr ’15. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 15th consecutive month in May ’15, with import volumes exceeding export volumes by 32.7% over the period. Recent strength in beef & veal imports resulted in ’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years, with this trend continuing into the ’14-’15 production season. Beef & veal net trade declined to a new seven and a half year low in Apr ’15, prior to increasing slightly in May ’15. Chicken – Net Trade Declines on Weak Export Demand May ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes continued to decline, falling 9.3% YOY and 2.5% MOM on a daily average basis. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout seven of the past eight months as the broiler export market continues to be negatively affected by the Russian import ban. Russia accounted for 8.2% of U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the ’12-’13 production season. Excluding Russia, May ’15 broiler export volumes increased 0.6% YOY, however declines were also experienced in other major U.S. broiler import markets. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 3.1% YOY, while broiler export volumes to Mexico declined YOY for the first time in 18 months, finishing down 29.8%. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months. May ’15 U.S. broiler imports remained strong, increasing 3.1% YOY and 27.0% MOM on a daily average basis. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with May ’15 imports amounting to only 1.8% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in May ’15 net broiler trade declining 9.5% YOY and 2.9% MOM on a daily average basis. Net broiler trade is down 7.3% YTD YOY through the first two thirds of the ’14-’15 production season. U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes have remained 58 times as large as import volumes throughout the first two thirds of the ’14-’15 production season.