U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Jan ’15
Pork – Net Trade Reaches Five Year Low on YOY Percentage Basis Nov ’14 U.S. pork export volumes declined 19.8% YOY and 1.9% MOM on a daily average basis. The monthly YOY decline was the fifth in a row after seven consecutive months of YOY export volume increases. YOY declines in export volumes were widespread across major trading partners, with exports destined to Mexico, Japan and Canada down 11.2%, 22.4% and 10.7%, respectively. U.S. pork exports to Mexico, Japan and Canada accounted for nearly two thirds of all pork export volumes in Nov ’14. Nov ’14 U.S. pork imports increased 9.7% YOY but declined 15.3% MOM on a daily average basis from the eleven year high experienced in Oct ’14. U.S. pork imports have increased YOY for nine consecutive months which, when coupled with the YOY declines in exports, have resulted in a continued decline in U.S. pork net trade figures. Nov ’14 net pork trade was up 3.3% MOM on a daily average basis but down 26.2% YOY. The monthly YOY decline was the largest in over five years on a percentage basis. U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Beef & Veal – Net Trade Negative for Ninth Consecutive Month Nov ’14 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 5.6% YOY and 7.2% MOM on a daily average basis. U.S. beef & veal export volumes to South Korea and Japan remained strong, up 42.3% and 3.5% YOY, respectively, however export volumes to Mexico and Canada were down 18.3% and 12.2%, respectively. U.S. beef & veal exports to Mexico, Japan, Canada and South Korea accounted for nearly two thirds of all beef & veal export volumes in Nov ’14. Nov ’14 U.S. beef & veal imports remained significantly higher, increasing 55.0% YOY. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes for the ninth consecutive month in Nov ’14, with import volumes exceeding export volumes by 16.8% over the period. Recent strength in beef & veal imports has resulted in ’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than YTD U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend has continued into the ’14-’15 production season, with November net trade being the lowest in six years. Chicken – Broiler Export Volumes Weak Due to Russian Import Ban Nov ’14 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 9.3% YOY and 9.9% MOM on a daily average basis. The YOY percentage decline in broiler export volumes was the largest in over three years as the broiler export market continues to be negatively affected by the Russian import ban. Russia accounted for 8.2% of U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the ’12-’13 production season. Excluding Russia, broiler export volumes declined by only 1.0% in Nov ’14. U.S. broiler export volumes to Mexico increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 1.3% YOY. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months. Nov ’14 U.S. broiler imports declined 4.2% YOY but increased 40.2% MOM on a daily average basis. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Nov ’14 imports amounting to only 1.8% of export volumes. U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes.