Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Oct ’14
According to USDA, U.S. export volumes of pork and beef have declined for the second consecutive month in Aug ’14 as high prices for red meat slowed down international demand for domestic product. Pork – Exports Down Significantly MOM and YOY Aug ’14 U.S. pork export volumes declined 11.4% MOM and 13.1% YOY. The YOY decline was the second in a row after seven consecutive months of YOY increases in export volumes and the largest YOY monthly percentage decline in 17 months. Growth for U.S. pork exports destined to Mexico remained strong through Aug ’14, however U.S. pork exports to China and Japan declined significantly. Despite the recent YOY declines, ’13-’14 YTD pork exports remain up 1.6% YOY through August. U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.2% over the same time period. ’13-’14 YTD pork imports have experienced much stronger growth, increasing 9.3% YTD through August, on pace to be the largest YOY percentage gain in nine years. U.S. pork exports volumes remain over five times as large as import volumes. Beef & Veal – Exports up Slightly MOM but Down YOY for Second Consecutive Month Aug ’14 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 0.6% MOM but declined 3.9% YOY. The monthly YOY decline was the second in a row after 14 straight months of YOY increases in export volumes. U.S. beef & veal export volumes have experienced strong YOY growth in Mexico, China and South Korea YTD, however Aug ’14 export volumes destined to Mexico and China declined by 12.1% and 2.9% YOY, respectively. Despite the recent YOY declines, ’13-’14 YTD beef & veal exports remain up 3.1% YOY through August. Recent relative weakness in beef & veal exports has resulted in ’13-’14 YTD U.S. beef & veal imports pulling virtually even with YTD U.S. beef & veal exports. ’13-’14 YTD export volumes were 22.3% greater than import volumes through the first five months of the production season, prior to the recent pullbacks in exports. U.S. beef & veal imports have exceeded exports by 14.8% throughout the past six months. Although U.S. beef & veal imports have historically exceeded U.S. beef & veal exports, imports have exceeded exports over the past three years leading up to the ’13-’14 production season. ’13-’14 YTD U.S. beef & veal imports are up 17.4% YOY.