2014 U.S. Milk Production Projected Higher – Mar ‘14
According to the March USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, 2014 U.S. milk production is projected at 205.7 billion lbs, unchanged from last month’s report. 2014 projected production of 205.7 billion lbs equates to a 2.2% YOY increase from 2013 production of 201.2 billion lbs. The projected 2.2% YOY increase in milk production is over triple the 2013 YOY milk production increase. 2013 milk production of 201.2 billion lbs resulted in only a 0.4% YOY increase and a 0.7% YOY increase when adjusting for leap year. January ’14 milk production of 17,255 million lbs was a 0.9% YOY increase. As shown in the chart below, the February and March USDA WASDE 2014 projected milk production and projected YOY production increase are the highest figures since the 2014 projections originated in May ‘13. Increased projected milk production for 2014 is a product of expected higher cow numbers in the second half of the year. USDA’s Cattle report estimated dairy replacement heifers expected to calve during 2014 were up about 2 percent YOY, while the number of milk cows was fractionally below a year ago. Strong returns resulting from higher milk prices and moderate feed costs are expected to boost expansion later in the year. Milk per cow is projected to be unchanged YOY. Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NFDM, and whey were higher in the March ’14 report, supported by strong demand and price strength to date. Class III and Class IV prices were raised on higher product prices and, as shown in the chart below, the all-milk price forecast increased to the highest figures since the 2014 originated in May ’13, of $21.40 to $22.00 per cwt.