U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Jul ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Cheese – Export Volumes Declined YOY for the Second Time in the Past 20 Months, Finish Down 15.4%
May ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 20 months, finishing down 15.4%. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 1.6% YOY, finishing higher for the 16th consecutive month, however the gain was more than offset by a 17.1% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes. Despite declining on a YOY basis, total cheese export volumes remained 1.0% above three year seasonal volumes for the month of May. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.6% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures remain up an additional 6.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the May ’18 decline.
May ’18 YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Australia and Japan. Cheese export volumes destined to Mexico declined 34.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, accounting for over 85% of the total monthly YOY decline in export volumes experienced throughout the month. U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico will likely remain weak in months to come as Mexico recently imposed retaliatory tariffs on a basket of U.S. agricultural imports including a variety of cheeses. Tariffs on Mexican imports of U.S. cheese will range from 20-25%, effective the first week of Jul ’18.
Dry Whey – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 21st Time in the Past 23 Months, Finish up 25.5%
May ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 25.5% YOY, finishing higher for the 21st time in the past 23 months. May ’18 dry whey export volumes reached a four year seasonal high for the month of May, finishing 21.5% above three year average seasonal figures. May ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to Morocco, followed by volumes destined to Malaysia and Vietnam, while dry whey export volumes destined to Canada and China finished most significantly lower YOY. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.0% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 16.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
WPC – Exports Remain at a Record Seasonal High Level, Finish up 51.7% YOY
May ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined from the monthly record high levels experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 51.7% to a record seasonal high for the month of May. May ’18 WPC export volumes finished 40.5% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of May. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.5% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 28.5% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Remain at a Record Seasonal High Level, Finish up 19.0% YOY
May ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined from the monthly record high levels experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 19.0% to a record seasonal high for the month of May. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 41st consecutive month during May ’18, trading at a 4.7% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
May ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam and Indonesia. Export volumes destined to Australia, Japan and Chile declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 12.0% YOY to a record annual high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 12.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. butterfat, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished higher than the previous year during May ’18 while cheese export volumes as a percentage of production finished below previous year volumes.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production during May ’18 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. May ’18 net dairy trade finished 19.2% higher YOY, increasing for the seventh consecutive month.
May ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined from the monthly record high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 17.2% to a new record seasonal high for the month of May. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 8.1% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 10.8% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
May ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 12.9% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 17 months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and remain down an additional 8.4% throughout the first two thirds of the ’17-’18 production season, despite the most recent YOY gain.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded cheese net trade volumes throughout the month while the U.S. finished as a slight net importer of butter for the first time in the past three months.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes increased 104.7% YOY, finishing higher for the 13th time in the past 14 months and reaching a four year seasonal high for the month of May. Butterfat import volumes exceeded export volumes for the first time in the past three months during May ’18, however, as import volumes finished at a 14 year seasonal high.
- U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 20 months, finishing down 15.4%, as Mexican imports of U.S. cheese were particularly weak. U.S. dry whey export volumes remained higher on a YOY basis for the 21st time in the past 23 months, finishing up 25.5% while U.S. export volumes of whey protein concentrate and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder each finished at record seasonal highs for the month of May, finishing up 51.7% YOY and 19.0% YOY, respectively, throughout the month.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis declined from the monthly record high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 19.2%. Export volumes on a percentage of milk-solids production basis remained at a record seasonal high level however import volumes also finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Cheese – Export Volumes Declined YOY for the Second Time in the Past 20 Months, Finish Down 15.4%
May ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 20 months, finishing down 15.4%. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 1.6% YOY, finishing higher for the 16th consecutive month, however the gain was more than offset by a 17.1% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes. Despite declining on a YOY basis, total cheese export volumes remained 1.0% above three year seasonal volumes for the month of May. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.6% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures remain up an additional 6.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the May ’18 decline.
May ’18 YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Australia and Japan. Cheese export volumes destined to Mexico declined 34.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, accounting for over 85% of the total monthly YOY decline in export volumes experienced throughout the month. U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico will likely remain weak in months to come as Mexico recently imposed retaliatory tariffs on a basket of U.S. agricultural imports including a variety of cheeses. Tariffs on Mexican imports of U.S. cheese will range from 20-25%, effective the first week of Jul ’18.
Dry Whey – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 21st Time in the Past 23 Months, Finish up 25.5%
May ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 25.5% YOY, finishing higher for the 21st time in the past 23 months. May ’18 dry whey export volumes reached a four year seasonal high for the month of May, finishing 21.5% above three year average seasonal figures. May ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to Morocco, followed by volumes destined to Malaysia and Vietnam, while dry whey export volumes destined to Canada and China finished most significantly lower YOY. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.0% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 16.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
WPC – Exports Remain at a Record Seasonal High Level, Finish up 51.7% YOY
May ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined from the monthly record high levels experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 51.7% to a record seasonal high for the month of May. May ’18 WPC export volumes finished 40.5% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of May. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.5% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 28.5% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Remain at a Record Seasonal High Level, Finish up 19.0% YOY
May ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined from the monthly record high levels experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 19.0% to a record seasonal high for the month of May. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 41st consecutive month during May ’18, trading at a 4.7% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
May ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam and Indonesia. Export volumes destined to Australia, Japan and Chile declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 12.0% YOY to a record annual high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 12.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. butterfat, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished higher than the previous year during May ’18 while cheese export volumes as a percentage of production finished below previous year volumes.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production during May ’18 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. May ’18 net dairy trade finished 19.2% higher YOY, increasing for the seventh consecutive month.
May ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined from the monthly record high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 17.2% to a new record seasonal high for the month of May. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 8.1% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 10.8% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
May ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 12.9% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 17 months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and remain down an additional 8.4% throughout the first two thirds of the ’17-’18 production season, despite the most recent YOY gain.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded cheese net trade volumes throughout the month while the U.S. finished as a slight net importer of butter for the first time in the past three months.