U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Apr ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Mar ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 2.9% MOM and 0.4% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 17.2% above three year average figures.
Feb ’18 stock figures were revised lower by 11.2 million pounds, or 4.1%, resulting in the seasonal build in stocks. The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 7.8 million pounds, or 2.9%, was consistent with the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 7.6 million pounds, or 3.8%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 7.9% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Remain at Record High Seasonal Levels, Finish up 5.2% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increase 0.8% MOM and 5.2% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March. The monthly YOY increase in cheese stocks was the 41st experienced in a row however the MOM build was smaller than historical average figures. Cheese stocks have increased by an average of 16.0 million pounds, or 1.6%, from February – March over the past ten years compared to the most recent build in stocks of 9.9 million pounds, or 0.8%.
U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the ninth time in the past 11 months, finishing up 0.1%.
- Mar ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing 0.4% above the previous year. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of March.
- Mar ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 5.2% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March. Cheese stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 41 consecutive months through March.
According to USDA, Mar ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 2.9% MOM and 0.4% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 17.2% above three year average figures.
Feb ’18 stock figures were revised lower by 11.2 million pounds, or 4.1%, resulting in the seasonal build in stocks. The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 7.8 million pounds, or 2.9%, was consistent with the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 7.6 million pounds, or 3.8%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 7.9% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Remain at Record High Seasonal Levels, Finish up 5.2% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increase 0.8% MOM and 5.2% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March. The monthly YOY increase in cheese stocks was the 41st experienced in a row however the MOM build was smaller than historical average figures. Cheese stocks have increased by an average of 16.0 million pounds, or 1.6%, from February – March over the past ten years compared to the most recent build in stocks of 9.9 million pounds, or 0.8%.
U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the ninth time in the past 11 months, finishing up 0.1%.