U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Apr ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Feb ’18 month-end dry whey stocks declined 1.8% MOM but remained 24.8% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of February and the eighth largest monthly figure on record. Dry whey stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through February. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 1.8%, was consistent with the ten year average January – February seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.0 million pounds, or 1.7%. Stocks declined despite dry whey production increasing by 9.6% MOM on a daily average basis and 14.6% YOY throughout Feb ’18.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 27.5% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase to a Record Monthly High, Finish up 23.6% YOY
Feb ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 5.5% MOM from the Jan ’18 revised figure and 23.6% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. Jan ’18 NFDM stocks were revised 9.8% below the initially stated figure, resulting in Feb ’18 stock volumes remaining at a record high level. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 13 consecutive months through February. The MOM build in NFDM stocks of 17.0 million pounds, or 5.5%, was consistent with the ten year average January – February seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 10.5 million pounds, or 6.2%. NFDM production increased 9.5% MOM on a daily average basis and 12.1% YOY throughout Feb ’18, contributing to the seasonal build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 12.6% YOY.
- Feb ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks declined slightly from the previous month but remained at a record seasonal high level, finishing 24.8% above the previous year volumes.
- Feb ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased to a new monthly record high, finishing 23.6% above the previous year volumes. Nonfat dry milk stocks remained at record high levels due to a significant downward revision to Jan ’18 stock volumes.
Feb ’18 month-end dry whey stocks declined 1.8% MOM but remained 24.8% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of February and the eighth largest monthly figure on record. Dry whey stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through February. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 1.8%, was consistent with the ten year average January – February seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.0 million pounds, or 1.7%. Stocks declined despite dry whey production increasing by 9.6% MOM on a daily average basis and 14.6% YOY throughout Feb ’18.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 27.5% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase to a Record Monthly High, Finish up 23.6% YOY
Feb ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 5.5% MOM from the Jan ’18 revised figure and 23.6% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. Jan ’18 NFDM stocks were revised 9.8% below the initially stated figure, resulting in Feb ’18 stock volumes remaining at a record high level. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 13 consecutive months through February. The MOM build in NFDM stocks of 17.0 million pounds, or 5.5%, was consistent with the ten year average January – February seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 10.5 million pounds, or 6.2%. NFDM production increased 9.5% MOM on a daily average basis and 12.1% YOY throughout Feb ’18, contributing to the seasonal build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 12.6% YOY.