U.S. Milk Production Update – Jul ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 30th consecutive month during Jun ’16, finishing up 1.5%. The YOY growth rate was the second highest experienced in the past 12 months on a percentage basis.
• The U.S. dairy cow herd increased by 1,000 head throughout Jun ’16, finishing at the second highest figure on record experienced over the past seven and a half years.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month during Jun ’16 as growth in Midwestern yields continued to remain strong while Western yields increased on a YOY basis for the first time in four months.
Additional Report Details
According to USDA, Jun ’16 U.S. milk production was up 1.5% YOY, at 17.8 billion pounds, setting a new June production record. U.S. milk production has increased YOY for 30 consecutive months through June. Production declined 1.4% MOM on a daily average basis from the peak levels experienced during May however the MOM decline in production was slightly less than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline of 1.5%. U.S. milk production typically reaches peak levels during the month of May before declining until seasonal lows are reached in October.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The Jun ’16 YOY growth rate of 1.5% was the second highest experienced in the past 12 months but remained below the ’14-’15 annual growth rate of 1.9%.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis continue to be led by South Dakota (+6.6%), followed by Michigan (+5.4%) and New York (+4.2%). California milk production declined YOY for the 18th consecutive month, finishing 1.0% lower, while production in Utah, Florida, New Mexico and Virginia also finished below the previous year. California, Utah, Florida, New Mexico and Virginia each experienced both a reduction in their milk cow herds and lower YOY milk per cow yields during Jun ’16.
Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd increased by 1,000 head during Jun ’16, finishing at the second highest figure experienced in the past seven and a half years. The Jun ’16 milk cow herd figure remained 1,000 head below the Mar ’16 figure, which was revised higher by 2,000 head during the most recent report. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9,328,000 head, which is 5,000 head more than June of last year.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the eighth consecutive month, finishing 1.4% higher than the previous year. Milk per cow yields continue to trend higher YOY in the Midwest while yields increased within the Western United States for the first time in four months. Milk per cow yields increased by an average of 2.1% YOY within Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois and 0.3% YOY on average within California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon.
MOM increases in the milk cow herd were experienced in Texas (+3,000 head), Minnesota (+2,000 head), Michigan (+1,000 head) and South Dakota (+1,000 head) while California, Wisconsin, Utah and Florida each experienced MOM declines of 1,000 head during Jun ’16.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Michigan (+11,000 head), followed by South Dakota (+9,000 head) and Texas (+6,000 head). New Mexico (-13,000 head) and California (-8,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reductions in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The Jun ’16 YOY growth rate of 1.5% was the second highest experienced in the past 12 months but remained below the ’14-’15 annual growth rate of 1.9%.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis continue to be led by South Dakota (+6.6%), followed by Michigan (+5.4%) and New York (+4.2%). California milk production declined YOY for the 18th consecutive month, finishing 1.0% lower, while production in Utah, Florida, New Mexico and Virginia also finished below the previous year. California, Utah, Florida, New Mexico and Virginia each experienced both a reduction in their milk cow herds and lower YOY milk per cow yields during Jun ’16.
Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd increased by 1,000 head during Jun ’16, finishing at the second highest figure experienced in the past seven and a half years. The Jun ’16 milk cow herd figure remained 1,000 head below the Mar ’16 figure, which was revised higher by 2,000 head during the most recent report. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9,328,000 head, which is 5,000 head more than June of last year.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the eighth consecutive month, finishing 1.4% higher than the previous year. Milk per cow yields continue to trend higher YOY in the Midwest while yields increased within the Western United States for the first time in four months. Milk per cow yields increased by an average of 2.1% YOY within Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois and 0.3% YOY on average within California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon.
MOM increases in the milk cow herd were experienced in Texas (+3,000 head), Minnesota (+2,000 head), Michigan (+1,000 head) and South Dakota (+1,000 head) while California, Wisconsin, Utah and Florida each experienced MOM declines of 1,000 head during Jun ’16.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Michigan (+11,000 head), followed by South Dakota (+9,000 head) and Texas (+6,000 head). New Mexico (-13,000 head) and California (-8,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reductions in their milk cow herds throughout the month.