Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jun ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased 4.6% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a two year high growth rate.
• Jun ’21 YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), while slaughter rates finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).
• Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd remaining near recently experienced 26 year high levels through Jun ’21. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the ’20-’21 production season, despite the most recent increase.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jun ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased contraseasonally from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 4.6% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The month-over-month increase in slaughter rates of 4.1% was the largest seasonal increase experienced throughout the past 12 years, finishing significantly above the ten year average May – June seasonal decline of 3.7%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 16 of 18 months through Jan ’21. More recently, dairy cow slaughter rates have finished higher on a YOY basis over three of the past five months through Jun ’21. The Jun ’21 YOY increase in dairy cow slaughter rates was the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the ’20-’21 production season, despite the most recent increase.

Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd growing significantly throughout the first half of 2021. The Jun ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure declined 1,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 153,000 head above the previous year.

Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).

YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin). Dairy cow slaughter rates declined most on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.