U.S. Milk Production Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 16 of the past 17 months through Nov ’20. The Nov ’20 YOY increase in U.S. milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 71 months while the 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a 35 month high level.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+13.4%), followed by Indiana (+10.9%) and Texas (+9.8%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Florida (-4.3%), Vermont (-3.3%) and Arizona (-2.1%). Wisconsin milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing 2.7% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. Overall, 18 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month throughout Nov ’20, finishing up 2.6%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the second largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis. California accounted for 18.6% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Nov ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 3.0% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Nov ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Nov ’20 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by California and Wisconsin, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Florida and Arizona.
The Oct ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head higher than levels previous stated while the Nov ’20 figure increased an additional 12,000 head, reaching a 29 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.41 million head, finishing 62,000 head above the previous year but remaining 31,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
U.S. milk per cow yields finished 2.3% above previous year levels, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 60th time in the past 61 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 49 months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 2.6% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.9% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in the Texas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Kansas and Oregon milk cow herds more than offset a decline in the Arizona milk cow herd throughout Nov ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Indiana, South Dakota and Idaho, while the California, Wisconsin and Florida milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 16th time in the past 17 months, finishing 3.0% above the previous year and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 71 months. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by California and Wisconsin.
- The Oct ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head higher than levels previously stated while the Nov ’20 figure increased an additional 12,000 head, reaching a 29 month high level. Milk cow herd figures finished 62,000 head above the previous year but remained 31,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing higher for the 60th time in the past 61 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 49 months.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 16 of the past 17 months through Nov ’20. The Nov ’20 YOY increase in U.S. milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 71 months while the 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a 35 month high level.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+13.4%), followed by Indiana (+10.9%) and Texas (+9.8%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Florida (-4.3%), Vermont (-3.3%) and Arizona (-2.1%). Wisconsin milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing 2.7% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. Overall, 18 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month throughout Nov ’20, finishing up 2.6%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the second largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis. California accounted for 18.6% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Nov ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 3.0% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Nov ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Nov ’20 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by California and Wisconsin, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Florida and Arizona.
The Oct ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head higher than levels previous stated while the Nov ’20 figure increased an additional 12,000 head, reaching a 29 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.41 million head, finishing 62,000 head above the previous year but remaining 31,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
U.S. milk per cow yields finished 2.3% above previous year levels, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 60th time in the past 61 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 49 months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 2.6% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.9% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in the Texas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Kansas and Oregon milk cow herds more than offset a decline in the Arizona milk cow herd throughout Nov ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Indiana, South Dakota and Idaho, while the California, Wisconsin and Florida milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.