U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Sep ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Placements in feedlots finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Aug ‘20, increasing by 9.2% and reaching the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past nine years. The YOY increase in placements finished significantly above average analyst expectations of a 5.8% increase. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 600-699 pounds (+11.7%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+10.8%), 800 pounds or more (+9.3%) and 600 pounds or less (+5.2%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 1.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 8.0% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past eight years. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have remained flat on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 9.8% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined on a YOY basis over six consecutive months prior to finishing higher over the two most recent months of data. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 2.7% heading into the final month of the production season.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past five months. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 3.4% decline. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by 3.7% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Sep 1st finished 3.8% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level and finishing above analyst expectations.
- Placements in feedlots increased 9.2% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, finishing significantly above analyst expectations.
- Marketings of fed cattle declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past five months. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with analyst expectations.
Placements in feedlots finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Aug ‘20, increasing by 9.2% and reaching the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past nine years. The YOY increase in placements finished significantly above average analyst expectations of a 5.8% increase. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 600-699 pounds (+11.7%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+10.8%), 800 pounds or more (+9.3%) and 600 pounds or less (+5.2%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 1.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 8.0% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past eight years. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have remained flat on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 9.8% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined on a YOY basis over six consecutive months prior to finishing higher over the two most recent months of data. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 2.7% heading into the final month of the production season.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past five months. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 3.4% decline. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by 3.7% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.