U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Apr ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Apr ’20 cattle on feed inventory included 7.08 million steers and steer calves, down 4.9% from 2019 levels, and 4.22 million heifers and heifer calves, down 6.5% from the previous year.
Placements in feedlots declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 22.7% and reaching a 25 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in placements was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 21.0% decline.
YOY declines in placements were widespread across weight groups and led by those weighing 700-799 pound (-31.1%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-26.7%), placements weighing 800 pounds or more (-22.3%) and placements weighing 600 pounds or less increased (-4.6%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 15.2% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 26.1% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more was the largest on record. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Marketings of fed cattle increased 13.1% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a 20 year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of an 11.8% increase. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, while ’19-’20 YTD marketings have increased an additional 2.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Apr 1st declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months, finishing down 5.5% and reaching a three year low seasonal level.
- Placements in feedlots declined 22.7% YOY during Mar ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month and reaching a 25 year low seasonal level.
- Marketings of fed cattle increased 13.1% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a 20 year high seasonal level.
The Apr ’20 cattle on feed inventory included 7.08 million steers and steer calves, down 4.9% from 2019 levels, and 4.22 million heifers and heifer calves, down 6.5% from the previous year.
Placements in feedlots declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 22.7% and reaching a 25 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in placements was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 21.0% decline.
YOY declines in placements were widespread across weight groups and led by those weighing 700-799 pound (-31.1%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-26.7%), placements weighing 800 pounds or more (-22.3%) and placements weighing 600 pounds or less increased (-4.6%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 15.2% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 26.1% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more was the largest on record. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Marketings of fed cattle increased 13.1% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a 20 year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of an 11.8% increase. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, while ’19-’20 YTD marketings have increased an additional 2.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.