U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Nov ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Oct ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 2.8% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 52.9 million pounds, or 18.2%, was greater than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 32.4 million pounds, or 15.0%. The greater than average seasonal decline in butter stocks was in addition to a 3.8% downward revision to Sep ’19 stock levels. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 1.4%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a 19 Month Low Level, Finish Down 2.4% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 19 month low level, finishing 2.4% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Oct ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained 4.2% above three year average seasonal levels, however. American cheese stocks declined 8.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.4% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal decline in cheese stocks of 31.6 million pounds, or 2.3%, was slightly larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 22.4 million pounds, or 2.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing down 4.4%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Sep Stocks up 0.2% YOY, Oct Stocks Projected Down 1.2% YOY
Sep ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 0.2%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 4.1% above three year average seasonal figures. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to finish lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months throughout Oct ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, however, declining by an estimated 1.2%. Oct ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available December 4th.
- Oct ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 2.8% and reaching a 26 year seasonal high level.
- Oct ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 19 month low level, finishing 2.4% lower on a YOY basis. Cheese stocks remained 4.2% above three year average seasonal levels, however.
According to USDA, Oct ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 2.8% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 52.9 million pounds, or 18.2%, was greater than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 32.4 million pounds, or 15.0%. The greater than average seasonal decline in butter stocks was in addition to a 3.8% downward revision to Sep ’19 stock levels. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 1.4%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a 19 Month Low Level, Finish Down 2.4% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 19 month low level, finishing 2.4% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Oct ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained 4.2% above three year average seasonal levels, however. American cheese stocks declined 8.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.4% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal decline in cheese stocks of 31.6 million pounds, or 2.3%, was slightly larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 22.4 million pounds, or 2.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing down 4.4%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Sep Stocks up 0.2% YOY, Oct Stocks Projected Down 1.2% YOY
Sep ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 0.2%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 4.1% above three year average seasonal figures. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to finish lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months throughout Oct ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, however, declining by an estimated 1.2%. Oct ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available December 4th.