U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Jul ’21
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:
- U.S. butterfat export volumes finished 149.6% higher on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. Butterfat exports exceeded import volumes for the fourth time in the past five months.
- U.S. cheese export volumes declined to a three year low seasonal level throughout May ’21, finishing 12.7% below previous year levels, however dry whey export volumes increased 30.3% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, reaching a three year high seasonal level. Whey protein concentrate export volumes finished 17.9% below previous year levels, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased 11.5% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, reaching a record high monthly level.
Additional Report Details
Butter – Exports Reach an Eight Year High Seasonal Level, Finish 149.6% Higher YOY
According to the USDA, May ’21 U.S. export volumes of butterfat declined slightly from the two and a half year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 149.6% above previous year levels, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butterfat export volumes was the sixth experienced in a row. Butterfat export volumes exceeded import volumes for the fourth time in the past five months throughout May ’21. Butterfat import volumes had exceeded export volumes over 32 consecutive months through the end of the 2020 calendar year.
’19-’20 annual butterfat export volumes declined 24.1% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD butterfat export volumes have rebounded by 106.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however, and are on pace to reach a seven year high level.

Canada continued to be the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout May ’21, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Canada, Bahrain and China combined to account for over half of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.

Butterfat export volumes destined to Canada increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by shipments destined to Bahrain and China, while butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower.

Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada have increased 41.3% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months however volumes destined to Mexico have declined by 34.4% throughout the period. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries have increased by 157.7% throughout the past 12 months, led by increases in volumes destined to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Canada.

Cheese – Export Volumes Decline to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 12.7% Lower YOY
May ’21 U.S. cheese export volumes declined from the record high monthly level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 12.7% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Cheddar cheese export volumes declined 30.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 10.0% lower YOY.
’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a six year high level. ’20-’21 YTD cheese export volumes have increased by an additional 1.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout May ’21, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Japan combined to account for over half of all cheese export volumes throughout the month.

YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan and Australia, while cheese export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly higher.

Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.

Whey – Dry Whey Export Volumes Remain Higher YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Lower
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 16th consecutive month during May ’21, finishing up 30.3% and reaching a three year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months through Jan ’20, prior to the 16 most recently experienced YOY increases.
’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded 15.6% on a YOY basis from the 15 year low level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey export volumes have increased by an additional 41.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season and are on pace to reach a three year high level.

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 17.9% on a YOY basis during May ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in WPC export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 11 months on a percentage basis.
’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes increased 18.4% on a YOY basis while ’20-’21 YTD export volumes have increased an additional 11.1% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout May ’21, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes.

YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to the Philippines finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for nearly 40% of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 117.8% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 5.3% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.

NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Monthly Level, Finish up 11.5% YOY
May ’21 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) reached a record high monthly level, finishing 11.5% above previous year volumes. NFDM/SMP export volumes have reached record high seasonal levels over four consecutive months through May ’21.
’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes increased 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. ’20-’21 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have increased by an additional 9.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout May ’21, accounting for over one third of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam combined to account for over half of all NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the month.

YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Algeria and China, while export volumes destined to Indonesia and the Philippines finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 40% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have increased 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 23.6% YOY over the same period.

Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. butterfat and dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during May ’21 while cheese and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished lower YOY.

Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 18.9% of total U.S. milk-solids production during May ’21 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 2.9% of total U.S. milk-solids production. May ’21 net dairy trade was estimated to have increased 12.3% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 13th time in the past 14 months.

U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have increased 8.5% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level and the second highest monthly level on record. The YOY increase in dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the fourth experienced in a row.
’19-’20 annual exports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 11.8% above previous year levels but remained below the ’17-’18 record high figures. ’20-’21 YTD exports as a percentage of milk-solids production have increased by an additional 9.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high annual level.

May ’21 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have declined 8.2% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the fifth time in the past six months. ’19-’20 annual imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 0.6% above previous year levels however ’20-’21 YTD imports as a percentage of milk-solids production have declined by 8.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.

Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the eighth time in the past ten months throughout May ’21 while the U.S. finished as a net exporter of butter for the fourth time in the past five months.
