EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Dec ’15
According to the EIA’s December Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to decline through Jan ’16. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. The seven regions analyzed have accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth from 2011-2013. Dec ’15 production was revised higher by approximately 26,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5%, but is expected to remain 107,000 bpd, or 2.0%, below Nov ’15 production levels. Jan ’16 production is expected to decline an additional 115,000 bpd, or 2.3%, from the Dec ’15 revised production levels to 4.86 million bpd, an 18 month low and 6.8% below the previous year. Projected MOM declines in oil production since the beginning of 2015 have been the largest experienced since the report was originated in 2007. The Jan ’16 projected declined in oil production was the second largest on record, trailing only the Jan ’15 decline in production. Projected MOM declines in oil production continue to be led by the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara regions. The aforementioned regions are expected to experience MOM production declines of 77,000 bpd (6.0%), 27,000 bpd (2.4%) and 24,000 bpd (6.6%), respectively in Jan ’16. Growth is expected to continue within the Permian and Utica regions, with projected production up 14,000 bpd (0.6%) and 1,000 bpd (1.9%) MOM, respectively, in Jan ’16.