New Zealand Milk Production Update – Jun ’15
According to Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ), Apr ’15 New Zealand milk production increased YOY for the first time in three months, finishing 8.5% higher than a year ago. Monthly production continued to decline seasonally, falling 17.5% MOM on a daily average basis, however the MOM decline in production was less than the five year average 23.6% decline over the same period. New Zealand milk production was tempered throughout the first quarter of 2015 due to low Farmgate Milk Prices and dry conditions. More recently, soil moisture levels have been restored to near normal levels, particularly on New Zealand’s North Island, although Farmgate Milk Prices continue to remain weak. In late May ’15, Fonterra revised its forecasted Farmgate Milk Price for the ’14-’15 season from $4.50/kgMS to $4.40/kgMS, noting the over-supplied world markets and continued good growing conditions in most dairy producing regions. The reduction in the forecasted Farmgate Milk Price was the fifth experienced in the past 12 months. Fonterra’s opening forecast Farmgate Milk Price for the ’15-’16 season of $5.25/kgMS was $0.85/kgMS, or 19.3%, above the current ’14-’15 forecasted price. ’14-’15 YTD New Zealand milk production is up 2.5% YOY heading into the final month of the production season.