U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – May ’15
All Milk – YOY Disappearance Continues to Increase on Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Bases According to USDA, Mar ’15 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, finishing up 4.4% and 3.0%, respectively. Domestic demand continued to outpace international demand, finishing up 8.0% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 4.9% YOY on a skim-solids basis. ’14-’15 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products is up 1.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.5% YOY on a skim-solids basis through the first half of the production season, with domestic demand up 4.1% and 3.2% YOY, respectively over the same period. Butter – YOY Disappearance Finishes Higher on Strong Domestic Demand Mar ’15 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased YOY for only the second time in the past eight months, finishing 6.5% higher than a year ago. Domestic butter demand remained strong, increasing 22.9% YOY, while international demand continued to struggle, finishing down 80.8% YOY. U.S. butterfat exports have declined YOY for 11 consecutive months as U.S. butter prices have traded at a premium to international prices and the USD has appreciated vs. rival currencies. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. butter commercial disappearance remains down 6.6% YOY through the first half of the production season, with domestic demand up 2.6% and international demand down 78.6% over the period. Cheese – Disappearance Finishes Higher YOY, Reaches New March Record High Mar ’15 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing 2.9% higher. Mar ’15 cheese commercial disappearance was the sixth largest monthly figure on record and the largest ever recorded for the month of March. American cheese disappearance was particularly strong, increasing by 7.4% YOY, while other than American cheese disappearance increased by 0.1% YOY. Domestic cheese demand remained strong, increasing 3.6% YOY while export volumes declined for the sixth consecutive month on a YOY basis, falling 5.1%. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. cheese commercial disappearance is up 1.8% YOY through the first half of the production season. NFDM/SMP – YOY Disappearance Remains Higher, Reaches New March Record High Mar ’15 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing 16.1% higher. Mar’15 NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the largest ever recorded for the month of March, driven higher by continued strong domestic demand. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic commercial disappearance increased YOY for the eighth consecutive month, finishing 33.0% higher than a year ago, while NFDM/SMP exports increased for the first time in eight months, finishing 6.6% higher than a year ago. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance is up 8.7% YOY through the first half of the production season. Fluid Milk Sales – YOY Sales Continue to Decline Jan ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.41 billion pounds continued to decline on a YOY basis, falling 3.1%. Monthly fluid milk sales have declined YOY for 13 consecutive months at an average rate of 3.0% over the period. YOY declines in fluid milk sales are on top of historically weak demand last production season. ’13-’14 annual fluid milk sales declined 2.4% YOY, which was the largest annual YOY decline on record. ’14-’15 YTD fluid milk sales are down 3.3% YOY through the first third of the production season. See the table below for a summary of key Mar ’15 U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures in addition to the Jan ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales figure.