Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Dec ’14
Pork – Net Trade Continues to Trend Downward Oct ’14 U.S. pork export volumes increased 8.3% MOM seasonally on a daily average basis but declined 11.9% YOY. The monthly YOY decline was the fourth in a row after seven consecutive months of YOY export volume increases. The MOM gain of 8.3% was less than the ten year average Sep – Oct increase of 9.5%. Growth for U.S. pork exports destined to Mexico remained strong in Oct ’14, increasing 4.6% YOY, however U.S. pork exports to China and Japan remained weak, declining 43.5% and 21.8%, respectively. U.S. pork exports to Mexico, Japan and China accounted for nearly two thirds of all pork export volumes in Oct ’14. Oct ’14 U.S. pork imports increased 40.2% YOY and 11.6% MOM on a daily average basis to a new eleven year high. The recent increases in pork imports, coupled with the YOY declines in exports, have resulted in a continued decline in U.S. pork net trade figures. Oct ’14 net pork trade was up 7.0% MOM seasonally on a daily average basis but down 23.1% YOY. The monthly YOY decline was the largest in over five years on a percentage basis. U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 YTD pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 YTD pork exports volumes remain over five times as large as import volumes. Beef & Veal – Net Trade Negative for Eighth Consecutive Month Oct ’14 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 3.4% YOY and 0.1% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal export volumes typically increase MOM in October, having increased seasonally by 8.3% from Sep – Oct on average over the past ten years. U.S. beef & veal export volumes to South Korea and Japan were strong, up 21.9% and 15.4% YOY, respectively, however export volumes to Mexico and Canada were down 18.5% and 28.2%, respectively. U.S. beef & veal exports to Mexico, Japan, Canada and South Korea accounted for nearly two thirds of all beef & veal export volumes in Oct ’14. Oct ’14 U.S. beef & veal imports remained significantly higher, increasing 3.4% MOM on a daily average basis and 49.2% YOY. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes for the eighth consecutive month in Oct ’14, with import volumes exceeding export volumes by 15.7% over the period. Recent strength in beef & veal imports has resulted in ’13-’14 YTD U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than YTD U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season, with October net trade being the lowest in seven years. Chicken – Broiler Export Volumes Weak Due to Russian Import Ban Oct ’14 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 2.9% MOM on a daily average basis but declined 3.3% YOY. Broiler export volumes generally strengthen at a greater rate from Sep – Oct, increasing by an average of 10.2% over the past ten years. The YOY percentage decline in broiler export volumes was the largest in six months. Broiler export figures were negatively affected by the Russian import ban. Russia is accounted for 8.2% of U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the ’12-’13 production season. Excluding Russia, broiler export volumes increased by 5.2% YOY. U.S. broiler export volumes to Mexico were particularly strong on a YOY basis, increasing by 11.3% YOY. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months. Oct ’14 U.S. broiler imports declined 21.4% MOM on a daily average basis and 31.7% YOY. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Oct ’14 imports amounting to only 1.2% of export volumes. U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 YTD broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes.