U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – Jun ’14
All Milk – YOY Commercial Disappearance Increases Continue According to USDA, April ’14 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products was up 9.0% YOY and 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis. April represented the eleventh straight month of YOY increases in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products. The April ’14 YOY increase of 9.0% was the largest in over 13 years, led by significant increases in butter disappearance and continued strong dairy exports. ’13-’14 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products is up 4.3% through the first seven months of the production season, on pace to be the largest annual increase on record. Butter – YOY Commercial Disappearance Increases Significantly, Despite High Prices April ’14 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 48.6% YOY and 17.1% MOM on a daily average basis. The YOY monthly gain was the largest in nearly 20 years. Commercial usage was up despite recent increases in domestic butter prices. The April ’14 announced butter price was up 14.7% YOY and 3.6% MOM. ’13-’14 YTD butter commercial disappearance is up 10.4%, putting additional pressure on historically tight butter stocks. U.S. butter stocks remain extremely low, with the April-May ’14 YOY declines in butter stocks being the two largest declines in three and a half years on a percentage basis. NFDM – YOY Commercial Disappearance Declines on Higher Prices April ’14 U.S. NFDM commercial disappearance declined 27.9% YOY, the largest YOY decline in ten months. NFDM prices appear to have limited commercial usage. The April ’14 announced NFDM price was up 31.9% YOY, slightly less than the average ’13-’14 YOY NFDM price increase of 33.3%. ’13-’14 YTD NFDM commercial disappearance has trended closely to last year throughout the first half of the production season prior to the significant declines experienced over the past two month. Overall, YTD NFDM commercial disappearance is down 6.1%. The decline in commercial use of NFDM is somewhat misleading since USDA does not include skim milk powder, the protein-standardized form of NFDM used for exports, in its commercial disappearance calculations. Cheese – YOY Commercial Disappearance Increases Continue April ’14 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 1.7% YOY and 0.5% MOM on a daily average basis. Cheese commercial disappearance remains strong despite recent significant increases in cheese prices. The April ’14 announced cheddar cheese price was up 36.0% YOY, up from the average ’13-’14 YOY cheddar cheese price increase of 29.6%. ’13-’14 YTD cheese commercial disappearance is up 3.2%, putting additional pressure on tight cheese stocks. U.S. cheese stocks remain extremely low, with the March-May ’14 YOY declines in stocks being the largest in over 12 years. Growth in commercial use of other-than-American type cheese (up 2.0% YOY) was stronger than for American cheese types (up 1.3% YOY) for the sixth time in seven months this production season.