U.S. Dairy Products Production Update – Mar ‘14
Butter – Production Lagging, Stocks Tight According to USDA, U.S. butter production continued to lag behind last year’s production through the first third of the ’13-’14 year. January ’14 U.S. butter production of 182.4 million pounds was 3.0% behind ’12-’13 production, and ’13-’14 YTD butter production was 2.4% lower than the previous year. ’13-’14 butter production has trailed ’12-’13 production for four of the past five months. Butter stocks declined to a 24 month low in December before rising seasonally in January; however January butter stocks were 33.3% below the previous year’s level. Cheese – Total Production Higher, Cheddar Continues to Lag Total U.S. cheese production was up 2.3% through the first third of ’13-’14, however U.S. cheddar cheese production continues to decline. Total cheese production was up 1.6% YOY in January ’14 despite a 1.0% YOY decline in cheddar cheese production. Cheddar cheese lost market share of total U.S. cheese production for the fifth straight year in 2013 (Jan-Dec) and cheddar cheese production has declined YOY in four of the past five months. Dry Products – Production Trends Continue Recent U.S. production trends continued in the dry whey, nonfat dry milk (NFDM), and skim milk powder (SMP) markets. Dry whey followed up an 8.0% YOY decline in December ’13 with a 22.8% YOY decline in January ’14. U.S. dry whey production has declined YOY in 12 of the past 13 months with an average YOY decline of 8.2%. Dry whey production is down 9.4% through the first third of ’13-’14. The recent shift from NFDM production to SMP production also continued in January ‘14. SMP production, which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, increased 22.6% YOY in January ’14 with NFDM production decreasing 2.3% YOY. NFDM production has declined YOY in 12 of the past 13 months with U.S. SMP production increasing YOY in each of the past 18 months. SMP production as a percentage of total SMP and NFDM production reached an all-time high of 34.3% for ’13-’14 YTD. See the table below for a summary of key U.S. dairy product production in January ’14.