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October 2012 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates

  • October 11, 2012
  • by wbabler
October 12 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates
  • ’11/’12 Corn –Neutral
    • Feed and residual usage was increased by 162 million bushels.
    • Ending stocks was estimated at 988 million bushels or 28.8 days of usage.
  • ’12/’13 Corn– Neutral
    • Total production was revised down 20 million bushels on lower yield and harvested area. Yield was below but harvested acreage was above private estimates leaving total production  a little above expectations
    • Exports are off 100 million bushels.
    • Ending stocks were 619 million bushels or 20.2 days of use which was just below private estimates.
  • ’11/’12 Soybeans– Neutral
    • Production was revised 40 million bushels higher on slightly better yield and harvested area.
    • Ending stocks was estimated at a tight 169 million bushels or 19.6 days of use
  • ’12/’13 Soybeans– Bullish on Demand Increase
    • Yield was increased to 37.8 bushels per acre and area harvested was up 1.1 million acres leaving total production sharply higher at 2.86 billion bushels.
    • Exports were increased sharply by 210 million bushels and crush is projected slightly higher by 40 million bushels.
    • Ending stocks came in at a very tight 130 million bushels or 16.3 days of use which again is the bare minimum level to carry over from one crop cycle to the next.
  • Other Markets – Bullish              
    • World corn inventories were reduced to the lowest level in six years on lower inventories in Brazil and lower production in Europe.
    • World wheat production was reduced by 5 million metric tons on lower Australian and Russian output. This was near most private estimates.
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-10-11-2012.pdf
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