• ’12/’13 Corn
  • Ethanol use was adjusted up 50 million while exports were reduced 50 million leaving ending stocks at a tight but manageable 759 million bushels or 24.9 days of use.
• ’13/’14 Corn
  • Initial new crop supply and demand projection was for yields 5 bushels per acre below trendline on delayed planting but total production was a significant 3.36 billion bushels higher than last year’s drought reduced total.
  • Feed use estimates are expected to rebound 925 million bushels from severely rationed levels in the current marketing year.
  • Exports came in 650 million bushels higher than the current marketing year but still would be well below previous years’ levels.
  • Ending stocks were projected at 2 billion bushels or 56.6 days of use which was in line with private estimates and one of the highest projections for domestic supplies since 2004/2005.
• ’12/’13 Soybeans
  • No changes.
• ’13/’14 Soybeans
  • Yields are projected to rebound to near trend line at 44.5 bushels per acre pushing production 375 million bushels higher than last year’s drought reduced levels.
  • Crush and exports are estimated 160 million bushels higher than last year.
  • Ending stocks are projected to more than double to 265 million bushels or 29.6 days of use.

• Other Markets 
  • World corn production for 2013/2014 is projected to increase an amazing 109 million tons or 4.29 billion bushels over last year’s production pushing ending stocks to the highest level in 13 years.
  • World soybean production for 2013/2014 is projected to increase 15.9 million tons or 625 million bushels above last year’s record production leaving ending stocks at the highest levels ever.
  • Foreign grain and oilseed production is projected to continue surging higher and competing against domestic production of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Barring a major crop failure similar to last season’s North American harvest, the world will be well supplied moving through the fall harvest.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-05-10-2013.pdf

• Outlook 2010

  To enable images for HTML:

  1. Click on the new “File” tab
  2. Click on “Options”
  3. Click on “Trust Center”
  4. Click on “Trust Center Settings
  5. Uncheck the “Don’t download pictures automatically in HTML e-mail messages or RSS items” check box
  6. Click the “Okay” button
  7. Exit Outlook 2010
  8. You may have to restart Windows for the changes to take effect.

• Outlook 2007

  To unblock picture downloads for all messages:

  1. On the Tools menu, click Trust Center and then click Automatic Download
  2. Clear the Don’t download pictures automatically in HTML email messages or RSS items check box.

  To see the images in a single message:

  1. Click the InfoBar at the top of the message
  2. Click Download Pictures.

• Hotmail

  1. Click Options
  2. On the left side of the page, click Mail
  3. Click Mail Display Settings
  4. Make your selections

• Yahoo

  1. Click Options
  2. On the left side of the page, click Mail
  3. Under Management, click the General Preferences link
  4. Make your selections to customize your inbox and message options

• Gmail

  1. Click Settings
  2. Under the General tab make your selections to customize the messages and inbox

• Mac Mail

  1. Select Preferences
  2. Click on Viewing
  3. Place a checkmark for Display remote images in email
  4. Click Save

• iPhone/iPod/iPad

  To display images for individial emails:

  1. Select the My Settings icon
  2. From the Settings menu on the left, select Mail
  3. Then Contacts
  4. Then Calendars
  5. On the right it will say Mail
  6. Go to Load Remote Images and move the bar to the ON setting

• Mozilla Thunderbird

  Thunderbird blocks all remote images by default.

  You can enable remote images for an email address by clicking on “Click here to always load remote images from …”.

  That adds an entry to the address book that has “Allow remote content” checked.

  For images embedded in messages:

  1. Go to “View”
  2. Then “Message Body As”
  3. Make Sure this setting is either “Original HTML” or “Simple HTML”

  For images attached to messages:

  1. Go to the “View” menu
  2. Make sure that “Display Attachments Inline” is checked

• ’11/’12 Corn
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Corn
  • Feed use estimates declined by 150 million bushels while ethanol grind was increased 50 million.
  • Exports were reduced by 25 million bushels to the lowest level in 40 years.
  • Ending stocks were projected at 757 million bushels or 24.8 days of use which was below private estimates.
• ’11/’12 Soybeans
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Soybeans
  • Residual usage declined by 25 million bushels offsetting a 20 million bushel increase in crush and 5 million bushel increase in export projections.
  • Ending stocks remain very tight at 125 million bushels or 14.8 days of use.

• Other Markets 
  • Foreign corn production was estimated above private estimates led by higher production in Brazil and South America.
  • World soybean production and ending stocks increased sharply on a combination of higher production and lower usage.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-04-10-2013.pdf

• Corn – Neutral
  • The acreage projection of 97.3 million acres planted was on pace with the average private estimate.
  • Yield is estimated below trend line because of the addition of less productive land moving into corn production in peripheral corn-belt states.
  • Feed and residual usage is expected to recover next year if yield and supplies rebound.
  • Ethanol production would also be expected to increase with a rising ethanol mandate and greater availability of corn feedstock.
  • Exports would be expected to rebound towards the 5 year average.
  • The projected ending stocks would be projected at the highest level in nearly 10 years at over 2 billion bushels.
• Soybeans – Neutral
  • The acreage projection of 77.1 million acres planted was below the 78.3 million acres average private estimate and similar to the 77.2 million planted last year.
  • Yields are estimated at trend line while demand is expected to improve slightly with the expectation the lower prices boost demand and inventory building in China.
  • In either case, the balance sheet for 13/14 is projected to loosen but remains prone to weather risks.
• Wheat – Neutral
  • The acreage projection of 56.4 million acres was on pace with the average private estimate.
  • High acreage abandonment in the wheat producing state of Kansas is expected on dry land areas as drought conditions persisted through winter months. Yields are also expected to weaken due to similar conditions pushing total production lower.
  • Total use is expected to remain comparable to the current market year with less overall feed wheat but stronger exports.
  • Ending stocks are estimated at a fairly comfortable 663 million bushels.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-28-2013.pdf

• Corn – Very Bearish
  • Projections of 5.399 billion were well above expectations with average trade estimates near 5 billion bushels.
  • Implied feed and residual usage was the main unknown variable and it came in at 1 billion bushels. The implied feed usage was down sharply indicating either substitutions with feed wheat and other small grains or simply a statistical aberration.
  • Given the slow pace of exports and rationing of some ethanol capacity, ending stocks for old crop 2012/2013 should be projected to come in close to 1 billion bushels versus current estimates around 632 million bushels.
• Soybeans –Bearish
  • Projections were above expectations at 999 million bushels versus average estimates of 935 million.
  • This should soften the old crop 2012/2013 balance sheet but with exports trending above USDA projections it will likely remain very tight.
• Wheat – Bearish
  • Projections were above expectations at 1.23 billion bushels versus average estimates of 1.11 billion.
  • Given the higher stocks for corn, it would have been expected that feed inventories end lower with higher takeaway for feed but this was not the case. Wheat inventories remain at high levels and tightness is not a concern for old crop 2012/2013.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-03-28-2013.pdf

Corn | Soybeans | Wheat

Atten Babler Commodities has been providing structured commodity margin management services for the ethanol, biodiesel, cattle, hog and dairy industries since 2006. On March 21st we officially expanded our services to include Margin Management for Corn, Soybean and Wheat Producers.

What is Margin Management?

Margin Management takes your futures & options hedging to the next level. It is a structured approach to managing your bottom line results. It allows you to get a handle on all of your numbers:

• Futures & Options Positions
• Basis and Cash Contracts
• Insurance
• Fixed, Variable and Financing Costs

Our powerful software system takes all of these variables and distills them into useful reports to help you understand your profit margins, exposure and risks. Reports for your operation are marked-to-mark daily and available 24×7 on our secure web portal.

What are the Benefits of Margin Management?

In today’s environment of extreme volatility and escalating production costs our existing margin management customers tell us they benefit from:

• A focus on bottom line results
• All of your information in one place
• Concise reports for making informed decisions
• Tools for evaluating price and yield stress test scenarios
• Timely information marked-to-market each day
• Close-outs for evaluating performance and managing credit lines

How Do I Get Started?

Contact your broker if you are interested in learning more or getting started. They can give you an online demo, discuss the various reports that are available, and walk you through the annual crop budget questionnaire. Once we have your info it is our job to load it in the system and maintain your model.

We are very excited about this new service. Now is the right time to start managing new crop profitability and hedge strategies, as well as to begin considering plans for 2014 and 2015. We look forward to answering any questions you may have about this new program.

Sincerely,

Carl, Chris, Kim, Karen & Kevin

800-884-8290

 www.attenbablercommodities.com

info@attenbabler.com

• ’11/’12 Corn
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Corn
  • Exports were reduced by 75 million bushels to the lowest level in 40 years.
  • Ending stocks were projected at 632 million bushels or 20.5 days of use which was near private estimates.
• ’11/’12 Soybeans
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Soybeans
  • No changes.
  • Ending stocks remain very tight at 125 million bushels or 14.8 days of use.

• Other Markets 
  • Total US meat production estimates for 2013 were revised higher led by higher finish weights in beef and greater numbers in poultry. Pork exports were estimated lower on softness in early demand.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-03-08-2013.pdf

• ’11/’12 Corn
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Corn
  • Industrial and seed use was up 20 million bushels.
  • Exports were reduced by 50 million bushels.
  • Ending stocks were projected at 632 million bushels or 20.5 days of use which was near private estimates.
• ’11/’12 Soybeans
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Soybeans
  • Crush was increased 10 million bushels reflecting strong demand for soybean meal.
  • Ending stocks remain very tight at 125 million bushels or 14.8 days of use.

• Other Markets 
  • World corn production was estimated 2 million tons higher led by better output in Brazil.
  • World soybean ending stocks are estimated at 60 million tons up 5 million over 2011/2012 on strong South American production.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-02-08-2013.pdf

• ’11/’12 Corn
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Corn
  • Total production was revised higher by about 55 million bushels on higher yield which was at the high end of private estimates.
  • Feed and residual usage was up sharply by 350 million bushels.
  • Exports were reduced an additional 200 million bushels reflecting the historically slow pace of export sales.
  • Ending stocks were projected at 602 million bushels or 19.5 days of use which was near private estimates.
• ’11/’12 Soybeans
  • No changes.
• ’12/’13 Soybeans
  • Yield and area harvested was increased slightly leaving total production up 44 million bushels at 3.015 billion bushels. This was in line with private estimates.
  • Crush was increased 35 million bushels reflecting strong demand for soybean meal.
  • Ending stocks remain very tight at 135 million bushels or 16.0 days of use which again is the bare minimum level to carry over from one crop cycle to the next.

• Other Markets 
  • World soybean production for the current market year are projected at a record 465.8 million tons carried by record output in Brazil estimated at 82.5 million tons on increased area and rising yield prospects.
  • South American corn production projections are also rising on favorable weather. Paraguay and Brazil, both exporters, raised output by 2 million tons.
  • US milk output was raised slightly on higher cow numbers for 2013 than previously expected.
  • US pork output is also raised on a larger than expected breeding herd and litter sizes indicating finished numbers will be greater than previously anticipated.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-01-11-2013.pdf